Veni, Vidi, Vincebar

Quite an offseason huh?  New GM, manager, coaching staff, bullpen, and attitude. Bobby V brings his own brand of baseball wackiness to the team, and I hope to god that he doesn’t take what could be a good team and run them into the ground with stupid decisions.  Despite the team in place though, I am genuinely nervous.  There are so many question marks, especially with the starting staff, that I can’t definitively expect a playoff berth.  The new wild card may be a blessing for this team as I definitely don’t see them winning the division against the gargantuan Yanks or taking the wild card from the Rays.  Below here are some quick thoughts about each player….

Starting Pitchers - this group is going to have a lot to live up to this year.  After chickengate, the opinion of them is at an all-time low and they are going to have to pitch their rectums off to win back Sox Nation.

• Jon Lester: Had a solid 2011 campaign, I don’t know what to say except that he should be poised to enjoy success in 2012.  High K totals, lots of fly balls, lots of wins.
• Josh Beckett: He has looked good this spring.  However, it’s an even year, so we never know.  Also, he doesn’t have ‘Tek this year so he could be in trouble.
• Clay Buchholz: This man’s health is THE MOST IMPORTANT THING for the Sox this year.  By far.  He’s talked about bringing back the curve this year, and if he can keep it successful then he’ll have an increase in strikeout numbers.  Is that a good thing though?  He benefits from high groundball rates if Iglesias gets playing time and Youk can stay healthy.  It’s going to be interesting to watch his season.
• Felix Doubront: I’m going to assume that he’s the 4th starter.  He should succeed, his curveball is definitely MLB ready and if he can keep his fastball down he will do well.
• Daniel Bard: My guess for the 5th starter as of now.  If he can mix pitches he will succeed.  He can’t exclusively work with his fastball anymore, it’s too flat to sneak by hitters 2 or 3 times in a game.  I’m not very confident that he can do that, though.  He has looked shaky this spring because his fastball command still isn’t 100% there, and without that he’s going to struggle mightily.
• Daisuke Matsuzaka: There’s talk that he may be back before the break.  Maybe the Tommy John taught him how to throw strikes?  On a serious note, I think he can succeed.  Bobby V feels that Daisuke is not a FB/Slider pitcher so he will encourage him to mix in more of his pitches than he has in his MLB career so far.  Let’s just get through this year and let him go on his merry way.
• John Lackey: thank whatever deity/lack therein you subscribe to that he isn’t pitching this year.  May he eat a bowl of penises and die.

Relief Pitchers - the retooled pen looks strong.  A few question marks, but aside from that they should be a successful group in 2012.

• Alfredo Aceves: aside from one horrible spring outing, he looks much like 2011.  He should continue to give valuable innings and rotational depth.  Why he’s not starting but Bard is…well that is beyond me.
• Mark Melancon:  Had a very good 2011.  He only threw 70ish innings but put up a good WHIP (1.224) and decent K/9 (8.0).  Hopefully he can transition to the AL East well.
• Matt Albers: he trailed off hard toward the end of the year, but if he can maintain his early-season success he should be an asset.
• Michael Bowden: Can Bowden, out of options, succeed in a regular post in an MLB pen?  After what we have seen (esp. that game in Yankee Stadium) I don’t know if that is the case.  However, he still has a good curve/change offspeed combo, and he may be able to turn it around yet.
• Chris Carpenter (the other one): This compensation trade (who has the stupidest face ever) has only made 10 MLB appearances but as of right now hasn’t been sent to AAA.  I don’t know how good he is but he was a 3rd round pick who isn’t arbitration-eligible til 2015 so we may be able to turn him into a respectable prospect.
• Rich Hill: word is that he may even get some spring training action.  Any depth is good depth, especially from a lefty.
• Andrew Miller: he probably is best suited as a reliever at this point.  He hasn’t had the mechanical consistency to start, so I think he would be best suited as a middle guy/long reliever.
• Franklin Morales: Had a very inconsistent 2011.  He won’t be ready for opening day but I think he could be a good choice at lefty specialist.
• Andrew Bailey: closing in Boston can be a daunting task.  He hasn’t had the greatest of springs but I sincerely think he will succeed.  He has the tools to excel, and has pitched in high-pressure situations before, but nothing compares to late September in Yankee Stadium with a 1-run lead.  We’ll see….

Position Players - the offense should be as high-powered as usual, depending on whether Bobby V destroys the lineup or not.

Infield

• David Ortiz: Yeah, yeah he’s a DH but I needed somewhere to put him.  He came into camp as lean as I’ve seen him and has been hitting balls to both fields with authority.  I think .300/35/100 is very plausible.  We will regret not giving him multiple years, I think he’ll command $15-16 million for another 2 years after this one at least, we could have just signed him for 2 yrs $30 mil with a mutual option for $13 million after which he retires.  Rant over.
• Adrian Gonzalez: his labrum has had a full offseason to heal.  His average may take a dip but his power numbers should increase, which is a blessing.  Often he blocked the bases last year, and moving to a more doubles and homer-based offensive output should help this team a lot.
• Lars Anderson: if he makes the team he will be trade fodder.  I wish him the best, but there is no future for him here and he hasn’t lived up to the expectations.
• Dustin Pedroia: Will he hold up without his cribbage partner?  Of course!  The guy just loves the game and will put up numbers no matter what.  Will he lead off? Hit 4th?  Hit 11th?  No matter what, he’ll produce.
• Mike Aviles: The probable starter at SS.  He’s nothing special defensively, but his free-swinging nature should yield some surprise offensive output.  Lots of strikeouts, lots of hits I think.
• Little Nicky Punto: LITTLE NICKY PUNTO HAS SO MUCH HEART.  That is all.
• Jose Iglesias: IMO he needs more time in the minors.  We know he’ll never be hitting .400 with 90 homers.  But, I think he should get another year in AAA where he can cement his fundamentals; bunting every single AB in the majors is just going to ruin his confidence.  AND as we saw with Carl Crawford last year, crappy offensive output can bring your psyche and defense down.
• Kevin Youkilis: Hopefully he’ll improve on a mediocre offensive 2011.  I don’t know how long Youk will be here depending on Middlebrooks’s readiness, as he is aging really really fast.  I think he’ll hit .280ish with characteristically high walks/OBP/OPS but no MVP-caliber output.

Outfield

• Carl Crawford: There is no way he does worse than 2011.  No way.  That is all I have to say.
• Jacoby Ellsbury: Power numbers will come back down to reality, but he should provide good defense/speed/offense at the top of the lineup yet again.
• Ryan Kalish:  Will probably start in AAA because of the injuries, I really want to see him succeed.  He could be a very talented major leaguer.
• Darnell McDonald:  5th outfielder as of right now.  He has had a MONSTER spring, and if he can carry these power numbers into next season he can do a lot in the way of earning more playing time.
• Cody Ross: LOL he asked for 3 years/$30 mil at the beginning of the offseason!  He’s a dirt dog though, hits lefties well and wears his socks up.  He should hover around league average numbers-wise but will win over fans because of his demeanor.
• Ryan Sweeney: He hits righties very well and will probably fulfill that capacity in the platoon (even though Ross should get some more playing time than a strict right/left split).  I think he should do well in that capacity.

So yeah, here you go!  I am cautiously optimistic but pretty ready for this team to collapse.  I am fully confident in Bobby V’s ability to either make or break this team, but I’m leaning toward the second with regards to him….feel free to let me know your thoughts about my thoughts!

Wins: 90
Best Case: ALCS loss to Detroit or NYY

Worst Case: 80 wins, catastrophic injuries, Bobby V is anointed dictator for life of the Sox

Well then.

We can’t change what happened today.  We all know what it means.  Eli Manning is now the man who beat Brady.  Eli Manning is the Paris to Brady’s Achilles.  Tom Coughlin is no longer a blowhard moron, he is now the premiere NFL head coach.  Belichick is…human.

This means so much more than that, though.  For 10 years, Boston fans have been blessed with this aura of infallibility - our age group has known no such thing as loss.  Today, moreso than that fateful day 4 years ago, we have felt that infallibility wane.  Tom Brady is human.  Bill Belichick is human.  Aaron Hernandez and Rob Gronkowski are human.  Today, we Bostonian young adults have felt the cold rush of fate.  No longer are we surrounded by the aura of protection a Boston sports fan has to offer.  Much like, as budding adults, we have no safety net of our own.  Bottom line: we’ve grown up.  We have to face the real world now.  And the real world sucks.

But let’s look on the bright side here.  This team never deserved to be here.  They didn’t.  I would like to see any other coach/QB tandem get to the Super Bowl with this team.  The fact that they stepped foot on the turf tonight in Indy is a testament to the longevity and prowess of the entire team. 

There are other bright spots too.  Pitchers and catchers report in less than two weeks.  The B’s are on fire.  The Celtics look like they may pull it together any minute.  It’s going to be 50 fucking degrees tomorrow in February.  Life goes on.

I find it pathetic that I’m choking up while typing this, but it’s a tough feeling knowing your heroes are just that - heroes.  Nothing more than mere men who happened to have a bad day twice in 4 years.  Guys, don’t do anything stupid tonight.  It’s just a game.

And like our parents, and their parents before them, used to say: “There’s Always Next Year.”

There’s always next year.